The Surprise Question

In medicine the "surprise question" has a specific meaning. It refers to when a doctor asks himself this question: "Would I be surprised if this patient died in the next year?"

A recent study published in the Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology found that the surprise question has high predictive value. Doctors classified 147 dialysis patients into "yes" and "no" groups on the basis of the surprise question. (i.e. No, I wouldn't be surprised if they died.) Sure enough, the No group died within the next year at a rate 3.5 times higher than the Yes group.

Conclusion: "The 'surprise' question is effective in identifying sicker dialysis patients who have a high risk for early mortality and should receive priority for palliative care interventions."

Who We Are
Alex Boese Alex is the creator and curator of the Museum of Hoaxes. He's also the author of various weird, non-fiction, science-themed books such as Elephants on Acid and Psychedelic Apes. Paul Di Filippo Paul has been paid to put weird ideas into fictional form for over forty years, in his career as a noted science fiction writer. Contact Us

Posted By: Alex - Tue Dec 30, 2008
Category: Death | Medicine

Comments

Sorry, Docs, but this is clearly a case of The Evil Eye being cast by y'all causing these numbers. So QUIT IT!

Posted by Expat47 in Athens, Greece on 12/30/08 at 09:29 AM

I don't think that is true Expat. Obviously anyone on dialysis is very sick, but it seems like when these doctors need to figure out which ones are sickest, they listen to their gut feelings.

Posted by Matt in Florida on 12/30/08 at 09:48 AM

If they're inevitably gonna die in the next year anyway how 'bout helping the ones that have a chance instead?
(just a thought...)

Posted by Jules in Connecticut on 12/30/08 at 10:14 AM

It's not the question that has any value, it's the doctor's experience and knowledge that give him his "gut instinct".

Mind you, I'm not ruling out Evile Eyes or curses of any kind, either.

Posted by kingmonkey in Athens, Ontario on 12/30/08 at 10:26 AM

I thought the suprise question was "how many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Blow Pop?".

Posted by Madd Maxx on 12/30/08 at 10:31 AM

And the add alongside these comments is for "Medical Bags".

Posted by Expat47 in Athens, Greece on 12/30/08 at 11:49 AM

Good analysis, Dumbfounded, but I think I have a more likely scenario. They told the patients the results of the question. Why keep running up bills for your family and suffering needlessly when you're going to die anyway. They were suicides.

Posted by BikerPuppy on 12/30/08 at 12:42 PM

wow, that's a lot of typing for WU - careful you might bring UP our reputation 😊

Posted by Jules in Connecticut on 12/30/08 at 12:50 PM

I think you're in condition A, Dumbfounded. You get no treatment from us!

Posted by kingmonkey in Athens, Ontario on 12/30/08 at 03:04 PM

Commenting is not available in this channel entry.